How to Quickly Transition from 0% to 100% Renewable Energy on an Island in the Northwest Corner of Europe?
Like many nations, the Isle of Man is committed to net zero emissions by 2050. 75% of the island’s greenhouse gas footprint - 500,000 tonnes of CO2 per year - is related to energy use. The island is almost entirely reliant on gas & oil for electricity, heating & transport and there are currently no wind farms, solar parks or energy storage facilities.
The Isle of Man lies in the Irish Sea, situated midway between the UK and Ireland. The island has 85,000 residents, with a land area of 571 km2 and a shallow territorial sea of 4000 km2. In total, the island uses around 1300 GWh of energy per year, of which 360 GWh is electricity, most of which is generated from a gas-fueled (CCGT) power plant with diesel engines in reserve.
There has been some hesitation on utilising the island’s enviable natural resources of wind, water & mountainous terrain. There are worries around maintaining a stable & resilient electricity grid and the cost of upgrading & reinforcing the grid to accommodate intermittent renewables plus a 2-3 times increase in electricity demand. The solution promoted by the state grid operator is to buy a majority of its future power from green sources in the UK via an existing and a planned interconnector. However, the steep rise and unpredictability in prices, has changed the question to can the Isle of Man become self-sufficient in renewable energy and, if so, how? This is the reason for the research reported here.
We have used the dual approach of energy system simulation and power-flow modelling to start building two different pathways for an economic transition from gas & oil to an island powered entirely by wind & solar energies supported by varying amounts of storage. Other options such as biomass, nuclear, tidal, wave & geothermal energies were found to be either too expensive or not feasible based on the island’s geography & geology.
The first pathway is essentially a British Isles-style transition involving full electrification and has been completed. The second pathway, based on Denmark-style plans involving district heating & a certain amount of green hydrogen, is now underway. Both pathways lead to net zero emissions from power generation through broadly overlapping steps:
1) Phase in onshore renewables.
2) Develop energy storage schemes.
3) Phase out gas power from the CCGT plant, whilst keeping the diesel plants as back up.
4) Build a second interconnector & strengthen key parts of the grid.
5) Phase in electric vehicles with carbon pricing.
6) Phase in sustainable heating through incentives.
The CCGT plant could be converted to a synchronous condenser to stabilise electricity or, alternatively, a new hydrogen turbine would allow it to continue as a thermal power plant. In the Denmark-style model, new district heating schemes use heat from seawater-sourced communal heat pumps, concentrated solar & energy from waste.
Both pathways are economic, the main difference being up-front cost versus operating cost. The models also show that, up to a reasonable size of over-capacity in wind energy, the larger the interconnector, the greater the value from exports, particularly if stored energy can be used in arbitrage, which helps justify the cost of pumped hydro schemes. Ultimately, the island could serve as an energy hub for offshore wind farms, linked to markets in the UK & Ireland.