The proposed expansion of the Panama Canal has been viewed as a ‘game changer’ to the world’s shipping industry and will have significant impacts on trade routes, port development, cargo distribution and a host of others to the U.S. maritime system. One of its greatest impacts will be felt in the fast-growing container trade where expansion will enable larger vessels to transit the canal. Vessel calls on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts are also expected to increase significantly as cargo shifts away from the congested West Coast. The challenge is predicting the timing and extent of the impacts as well as the location of the impacts on fleets and cargo, i.e., which ports will be most impacted? Congress and policy makers in the U.S. have been concerned about these uncertainties and have looked to the Corps of Engineers and other federal agencies in developing strategies to meet the many challenges facing U.S. ports following the Canal’s Expansion, particularly in an era of constrained budgets and heightened environmental scrutiny.
This presentation will highlight the research and several notable studies undertaken by the Corps of Engineers, private industry and academia in the years leading up to and following the Panama Canal’s Expansion. This work provides key insights into the extent and types of data, maritime metrics, forecast methods, and outreach strategies when planning and evaluating port projects. And while the Canal’s expansion has certainly been a catalyst, there have been broader implications of making sound investments in an even more uncertain world. For example, natural disasters, the unforeseen drop in oil prices, continued consolidation of the liner industry, and other world events have forced the Corps of Engineers to adapt its thinking when it comes to its national port infrastructure investments. Finally, the presentation will summarize the U.S. Port Modernization Studies, a Congressionally-directed assessment of the U.S.’s ability to accommodate the increased size and number of vessels following the Canal’s expansion in the attempt of answering the compelling question, “is the U.S. ready?”